From Angst To Action
Let’s talk about 2018 (because it’s too depressing to talk about 2017). The popular wisdom has been that we Dems have a small chance to take back the House, and no chance to take back the Senate. I want to push back on both of those notions.
We need 24 seats to flip our way in order to take back the House of Representatives. President Harry Truman, who was about as unpopular then as President Trump is now, lost 45 seats in his first mid-term election. President Gerald Ford, who was near the peak of his popularity, nevertheless lost 48 seats in his mid-term election. Even President Obama, whose first-term popularity was a dismal 44% versus President Trump’s current, even worse, 35% rating in the Gallup Daily Poll, lost 63 seats. Yes, we’re up against the outrageous gerrymandering that has followed the 2000 census and Republican successes in state houses, but this is entirely achievable. It hinges on President Trump’s continued slide in the polls (something I think we can count on), good candidate recruitment (which we’re seeing), and continued Republican infighting (also a lock, thank you Mr. President). Read a much more nuanced analysis on the prospects for the House from NBC News, Democrats Could Win 50 House Seats. Here’s How.
Now let’s move to the Senate. As you can see on the map, above, Democrats and Independents (Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Angus King) are defending 25 of the 34 Senate races in 2018. That puts us on the defensive, but let me give you four factors that I hope will tilt the scales in our favor.
First, candidates matter. We have 10 Senators running in states that went to Trump, but 9 of them out-performed Senator Obama in their states in 2012 (and the 10th, Senator Tammy Baldwin, carried over 50% of the vote against a popular ex-governor!). Our incumbents in the reddest states (Sen. Manchin in West Virginia, Sen. McCaskill in Missouri, Sen. Donnelly in Indiana, and Sen. Heitkamp in North Dakota) understand the dynamics of their own states and know how to get elected there.
Second, candidates on the other side matter too. The Republicans are having a tough time recruiting top-tier candidates. The top three candidates that Republicans were hoping to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin, for example, all turned down the opportunity. By failing to recruit top candidates, the Republicans have created a morass of hotly contested, wide open primaries, the kind that tend to hurt the surviving “winner” badly in the general election. Michigan, Indiana, and Pennsylvania all have five or more Republican candidates, and Republican incumbents in Arizona and Nevada are being primaried.
Third, we have significant pick-up opportunities. Partly thanks to the nasty Republican primaries in Arizona and Nevada, and partly because of the Republican effort to dismantle Medicaid in the guise of healthcare reform, we have an opportunity to snatch victory from defeat for a change (instead of the opposite which we sometimes do so well). Who knows? Roll Call is even wondering if a perfect storm will flip the Senate seat from Alabama to the Dems!
And then there is Trump. Take a look at this word cloud, based on a Quinnipiac poll taken in May that asked Americans to describe the President in one word. His upsidedown approval ratings (59% disapprove; 35% approve), his petty, small, narcissistic behavior, his defense of the KKK and neo-nazis, his attacks on fellow Republicans, and his reckless rhetoric with nuclear powers like North Korea and Pakistan have all left the American electorate shaken and a bit afraid. As I said last week, President Trump’s approval rating is close to rock bottom with both Democrats and Independents, and it is finally slipping among Republicans. (For great background, read fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver’s analysis, Seven Rules For Reading Trump’s Approval Rating.)
American voters like checks and balances. That’s one big reason why the party of incumbent presidents loses seats in Congress during mid-term elections. If ever there was a moment that demanded spreading control among the two major parties, now is that time. Let’s not just hope the American voter gets it right this time, let’s work harder and dig deeper than we ever have to save our nation.
[Originally appeared in the email newsletter, NKC Occasional Update] ASF